Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 - Statistics and Trends

Supreme Novices Hurdle – Statistics and Trends

An analysis of data for the Supreme Novices Hurdle showing statistics and trends for the last 25 renewals since 1997. Analysis of the race is broken down by a number of factors including age, weight carried, days since last run, starting price and official rating.

What is the Supreme Novices Hurdle?

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race for horses which are four years old or above. It is run on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, which takes place in March each year, and is one of the most prestigious races for novice hurdlers (horses that have not yet won a hurdle race) in the United Kingdom. The race is run over a distance of about 2 miles and 110 yards, and has eight hurdles to be jumped.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the first race of the Cheltenham Festival, and is often used as an indicator of potential future champions. Many horses that have won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have gone on to have successful careers in the sport, including the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Champ. Some others also went on to win Cheltenham Gold Cup as well.

The race is often considered as an opportunity for young, unexposed talents to showcase themselves and stake their claim for future stardom.

No race in 2001 due to foot and mouth crisis.

This years race will be held on Tuesday 14th March 2023

Supreme Novices Hurdle Winners since 1997

Date

Distance

Going

Runners

Winner

Stallion

Age

Jockey (Clm)

Trainer

Odds

Weight

Days

15.03.2022

2m½f

Good To Soft

Constitution Hill

Blue Bresil (FR)

Boinville, Nico

Henderson, N J

9/4

11-7

148

66d

16.03.2021

2m½f

Soft

Appreciate It (IRE)

Jeremy (USA)

Townend, P

Mullins, W P

8/11

11-7

153

37d

10.03.2020

2m½f

Soft

Shishkin (IRE)

Sholokhov (IRE)

Boinville, Nico

Henderson, N J

6/1

11-7

153

33d

12.03.2019

2m½f

Soft

Klassical Dream (FR)

Dream Well (fr)

Walsh, R

Mullins, W P

6/1

11-7

154

37d

13.03.2018

2m½f

Heavy

Summerville Boy (IRE)

Sandmason

Fehily, Noel

George, T R

9/1

11-7

150

66d

14.03.2017

2m½f

Good To Soft

Labaik (FR)

Montmartre (FR)

Kennedy, J W

Elliott, Gordon

25/1

11-7

144

16d

15.03.2016

2m½f

Good To Soft

Altior (IRE)

High Chaparral (IRE)

Boinville, Nico

Henderson, N J

4/1

11-7

155

80d

10.03.2015

2m½f

Good To Soft

Douvan (FR)

Walk In The Park (IRE)

Walsh, R

Mullins, W P

2/1

11-7

155

59d

11.03.2014

2m½f

Good To Soft

Vautour (FR)

Robin Des Champs (FR)

Walsh, R

Mullins, W P

7/2

11-7

155

30d

12.03.2013

2m½f

Soft

Champagne Fever (IRE)

Stowaway

Walsh, R

Mullins, W P

5/1

11-7

148

31d

13.03.2012

2m½f

Good

Cinders And Ashes

Beat Hollow

Maguire, Jason

McCain Jnr, D

10/1

11-7

142

52d

15.03.2011

2m½f

Good

Al Ferof (FR)

Dom Alco (FR)

Walsh, R

Nicholls, P F

10/1

11-7

142

31d

16.03.2010

2m½f

Good To Soft

Menorah (IRE)

Kings Theatre (IRE)

Johnson, Richard

Hobbs, P J

12/1

11-7

147

24d

10.03.2009

2m½f

Good To Soft

Go Native (IRE)

Double Eclipse (IRE)

Carberry, P

Meade, Noel

12/1

11-7

139

16d

11.03.2008

2m½f

Good To Soft

Captain Cee Bee (IRE)

Germany (USA)

Thornton, Robert

Harty, Edward and Patrick

17/2

11-7

142

115d

13.03.2007

2m½f

Soft

Ebaziyan (IRE)

Daylami (IRE)

Condon, D J

Mullins, W P

40/1

11-7

40d

14.03.2006

2m½f

Good To Soft

Noland

Exit To Nowhere (USA)

Walsh, R

Nicholls, P F

6/1

11-7

138

30d

15.03.2005

2m½f

Good

Arcalis

Lear Fan (USA)

Lee, G

Johnson, J Howard

20/1

11-7

136

31d

16.03.2004

2m½f

Good

Brave Inca (IRE)

Good Thyne (USA)

Cash, B M

Murphy, C A

7/2

11-7

37d

11.03.2003

2m½f

Good

Back In Front (IRE)

Bob Back (USA)

Williamson, N

OGrady, E J

3/1

11-8

20d

12.03.2002

2m½f

Good To Soft

Like-A-Butterfly (IRE)

Montelimar (USA)

Swan, C F

Roche, C

7/4

11-3

30d

14.03.2000

2m½f

Good

Sausalito Bay

Salse (USA)

Carberry, P

Meade, Noel

14/1

11-8

44d

16.03.1999

2m½f

Good To Soft

Hors La Loi Iii (FR)

Cyborg (FR)

McCoy, A P

Pipe, M C

9/2

11-0

45d

17.03.1998

2m½f

Good

French Ballerina (IRE)

Sadlers Wells (USA)

Bradley, G

Flynn, Patrick J

10/1

11-3

65d

11.03.1997

2m½f

Good

Shadow Leader (OLD)

Tragic Role (USA)

Osborne, J

Egerton, C R

5/1

11-8

31d

Horses Age – Supreme Novices Hurdle

The table below shows the ages of the 440 horses that have lined up in the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997.

368 of the runners have been aged either 5 or 6, this age range has been responsible for 21 of the 25 winners.

Horse Age	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
4	20	1	-14.5	5%	2	10%
5	199	9	-118.25	5%	35	18%
6	169	12	-20.5	7%	32	19%
7	41	2	-29.77	5%	4	10%
8	10	1	-7.25	10%	2	20%
9	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%

Weight Carried – Supreme Novices Hurdle

22 of the 25 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997 have carried at least 11st 7lb to victory. 70 of the 75 horses to make the first 3 were also in this range.

Horse Weight	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
10-9	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
10-13	7	0	-7	0%	1	14%
11-0	19	1	-13.5	5%	2	11%
11-3	6	2	7.75	33%	2	33%
11-7	296	19	-91.52	6%	55	19%
11-8	110	3	-85	3%	15	14%

Headgear Worn – Supreme Novices Hurdle

All of the winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997 have been without headgear which is no surprise as only 29 of the 440 runners have lined up wearing any.

Headgear	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Places	Place%
Cheekpieces	6	0	0	-6	2	33.33
Blinkers	13	0	0	-13	1	7.69
Visor	3	0	0	-3	0	0
Hood	6	0	0	-6	0	0
Eye shield or cover	1	0	0	-1	0	0
None	411	25	6.08	-162.27	72	17.52

Starting Price (SP) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

The table shows the starting price range of all horses that have run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997.

The winners range from 8/11 (1.73) to 25/1 (26.00).

21 of the 25 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle have returned a SP of 12/1 (11.00) or less.

For those who like an each way play 43 of the 75 horses that have finished in the frame (first 3 places) have returned a SP of 13/2 or more.

Odds Range	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
Btw 1/2 & 10/11	2	1	-0.27	50%	2	100%
Btw Evens & 6/4	1	0	-1	0%	1	100%
Btw 13/8 & 9/4	12	3	-3	25%	6	50%
Btw 5/2 & 4/1	12	4	6	33%	7	58%
Btw 9/2 & 6/1	27	6	11.5	22%	16	59%
Btw 13/2 & 8/1	24	0	-24	0%	7	29%
Btw 17/2 & 12/1	63	7	15.5	11%	14	22%
Btw 14/1 & 20/1	86	2	-50	2%	11	13%
Btw 22/1 & 40/1	91	2	-24	2%	9	10%
K) 50-1 or above	122	0	-122	0%	2	2%

Position in Betting Market – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Just 7 favourites have won the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997. 17 of the 25 winners came from the first 3 in the betting market.

Position In Market	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
1	31	7	-7.27	23%	15	48%
2	24	6	16.5	25%	14	58%
3	27	4	8	15%	10	37%
4	26	2	-3.5	8%	8	31%
5	23	1	-8	4%	5	22%
6	28	2	-4	7%	5	18%
7	27	0	-27	0%	1	4%
8	28	0	-28	0%	2	7%
9	23	0	-23	0%	3	13%
10	23	2	24	9%	4	17%
11	19	0	-19	0%	0	0%
12	27	0	-27	0%	2	7%
13	20	0	-20	0%	2	10%
14	20	1	21	5%	3	15%
15	12	0	-12	0%	1	8%
16	24	0	-24	0%	0	0%
17	9	0	-9	0%	0	0%
18	13	0	-13	0%	0	0%
19	10	0	-10	0%	0	0%
20	8	0	-8	0%	0	0%
21	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
22	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
24	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
26	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
28	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
29	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%

Official Rating (OR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

The following table shows the official rating of every placed horse in the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997

17 of the 25 winners had been allocated an official rating.

None of the winners with an official rating were rated below 136 or above 155.

Official Rating	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	173	8	-83.25	5%	22	13%
97	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
100	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
102	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
104	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
105	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
109	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
110	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
112	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
113	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
114	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
116	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
118	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
119	3	0	-3	0%	1	33%
120	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
121	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
123	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
124	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
125	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
126	4	0	-4	0%	1	25%
127	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
128	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
129	7	0	-7	0%	0	0%
130	7	0	-7	0%	2	29%
131	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
132	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
133	6	0	-6	0%	0	0%
134	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
135	9	0	-9	0%	1	11%
136	7	1	14	14%	1	14%
137	10	0	-10	0%	1	10%
138	16	1	-9	6%	3	19%
139	8	1	5	13%	3	38%
140	12	0	-12	0%	3	25%
141	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
142	17	3	14.5	18%	4	24%
143	13	0	-13	0%	3	23%
144	16	1	10	6%	4	25%
145	10	0	-10	0%	2	20%
146	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
147	8	1	5	13%	2	25%
148	12	2	-2.75	17%	6	50%
149	3	0	-3	0%	1	33%
150	4	1	6	25%	2	50%
151	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
152	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
153	6	2	2.73	33%	4	67%
154	6	1	1	17%	4	67%
155	4	3	8.5	75%	3	75%
156	2	0	-2	0%	1	50%
159	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
162	1	0	-1	0%	1	100%

Official ratings are produced by the British Horseracing Board.

Days Since Last Run (DSLR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

20 of the 25 Supreme Novice Hurdle winners since 1997 had their latest run between 16 and 60 days ago.

No horses made the frame returning to the track in less than 16 days.

Days Since Run	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
1-7 days	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
8-15 days	32	0	-32	0%	0	0%
16-30 days	144	7	-73.75	5%	18	13%
31-60 days	178	13	-38.27	7%	38	21%
61-90 days	54	4	-24.75	7%	16	30%
91-120 days	17	1	-7.5	6%	3	18%
121-365 days	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
> 365 days	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
First Run	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%

Last Run Placing (LR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

The table shows the break down of the last run placing for the previous 25 runnings of the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997.

22 of the 25 winners had won on their previous outing.

Previous Place	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
No Run	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
First	188	22	0.73	12%	54	29%
Second	89	1	-76	1%	9	10%
Third	40	1	-19	3%	3	8%
Fourth	37	0	-37	0%	1	3%
Fifth	22	0	-22	0%	0	0%
Sixth	10	1	16	10%	1	10%
Seventh	7	0	-7	0%	1	14%
Eighth	11	0	-11	0%	1	9%
Ninth	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
Tenth	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
Eleventh	1	0	-1	0%	1	100%
Thirteenth	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Fourteenth	1	0	-1	0%	1	100%
Sixteenth	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Seventeenth	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Twenty Third	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Fell	9	0	-9	0%	2	22%
Pulled Up	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
Unseated Rider	5	0	-5	0%	1	20%

Miscellaneous Statistics – Supreme Novices Hurdle

All of this data is for the last 25 renewals of the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 1997

Runs (365 days)	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
1	21	0	-21	0%	1	5%
2	41	6	24.75	15%	13	32%
3	57	2	-50.77	4%	10	18%
4	73	2	-61.5	3%	12	16%
5	65	7	-12.25	11%	21	32%
6	54	5	4.5	9%	10	19%
7	35	1	-22	3%	3	9%
8	22	2	19	9%	2	9%
9	18	0	-18	0%	2	11%
10	13	0	-13	0%	0	0%
11	11	0	-11	0%	0	0%
12	7	0	-7	0%	1	14%
13	6	0	-6	0%	0	0%
14	6	0	-6	0%	0	0%
18	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
19	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
22	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
23	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
24	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Wins (Distance)	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	292	17	-94.77	6%	41	14%
1	103	7	-62.5	7%	21	20%
2	33	1	-22	3%	9	27%
3	4	0	-4	0%	1	25%
4	8	0	-8	0%	3	38%
Wins (Less Dist)	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	90	2	-78.5	2%	12	13%
1	105	4	-70	4%	15	14%
2	105	6	-70.25	6%	19	18%
3	74	6	19.5	8%	14	19%
4	35	5	2.98	14%	10	29%
5	13	0	-13	0%	1	8%
6	9	1	6	11%	3	33%
7	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
8	2	1	19	50%	1	50%
9	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
10	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Wins (Higher Dist)	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	280	10	-130.25	4%	41	15%
1	120	12	-35.27	10%	27	23%
2	33	2	-21.5	6%	5	15%
3	6	1	-3.25	17%	2	33%
4	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Season Runs	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
0	7	0	-7	0%	0	0%
1	35	0	-35	0%	2	6%
2	79	8	12.75	10%	16	20%
3	102	6	-70.77	6%	20	20%
4	98	6	-39.25	6%	20	20%
5	56	5	11	9%	12	21%
6	29	0	-29	0%	3	10%
7	15	0	-15	0%	2	13%
8	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
9	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
10	6	0	-6	0%	0	0%
11	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
13	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
14	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
15	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
17	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Max Distance Run	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
No Prev Run	4	0	-4	0%	0	0%
1m4f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m4½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m7½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
2m	75	8	27.75	11%	13	17%
2m½f	84	1	-63	1%	13	15%
2m1f	77	5	-38.5	6%	16	21%
2m1½f	24	1	-18	4%	6	25%
2m2f	35	1	-30.5	3%	4	11%
2m2½f	10	0	-10	0%	0	0%
2m3f	9	0	-9	0%	0	0%
2m3½f	24	1	-11	4%	5	21%
2m4f	46	7	5.98	15%	12	26%
2m4½f	18	0	-18	0%	4	22%
2m5f	13	1	-2	8%	1	8%
2m5½f	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
2m6f	7	0	-7	0%	1	14%
2m6½f	5	0	-5	0%	0	0%
3m½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
Max Distance WIN	Runs	Wins	P/L	Win%	Places	Place%
No Prev Win	30	0	-30	0%	1	3%
1m	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m1f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m2f	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
1m2½f	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
1m3f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m4f	6	0	-6	0%	0	0%
1m4½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m5f	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
1m6f	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
1m6½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
1m7½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
2m	132	10	17.75	8%	22	17%
2m½f	96	0	-96	0%	18	19%
2m1f	62	5	-23.5	8%	10	16%
2m1½f	20	1	-14	5%	7	35%
2m2f	18	2	-7.5	11%	6	33%
2m2½f	8	0	-8	0%	0	0%
2m3f	8	1	5	13%	1	13%
2m3½f	10	1	1	10%	3	30%
2m4f	26	5	-6.02	19%	7	27%
2m4½f	3	0	-3	0%	0	0%
2m5f	2	0	-2	0%	0	0%
2m5½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
2m6f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%
2m6½f	1	0	-1	0%	0	0%

One Stop Ratings – Supreme Novices Hurdle

15 of the 20 winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle since 2002 have been in the top 5 on our One Stop Rating (OSR).

OSR Rank	Bets	Wins	Win%	Places	Places%	P/L
1	22	4	18.18%	12	54.55%	-3.77
2	18	4	22.22%	6	33.33%	12.00
3	20	0	0.00%	4	20.00%	-20.00
4	22	2	9.09%	11	50.00%	-5.75
5	18	5	27.78%	6	33.33%	17.50
6	22	0	0.00%	5	22.73%	-22.00
7	19	0	0.00%	3	15.79%	-19.00
8	21	1	4.76%	3	14.29%	-10.00
9	20	0	0.00%	1	5.00%	-20.00
10	16	0	0.00%	1	6.25%	-16.00
11	17	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-17.00
12	19	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-19.00
13	15	1	6.67%	2	13.33%	-5.50
14	18	2	11.11%	3	16.67%	29.00
15	14	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-14.00
16	11	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-11.00
17	10	1	10.00%	2	20.00%	31.00
18	12	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-12.00
19	8	0	0.00%	1	12.50%	-8.00
20	6	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-6.00
21	1	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-1.00
22	2	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	-2.00

One Stop Racings unique One Stop Ratings will be available for the Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 on Monday 13th March.

Our Selection for the 2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

One Stop Racing’s selection for the 2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle will be sent to All Members of One Stop Racing on the morning of the race.

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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 – Statistics and Trends

Supreme Novices Hurdle – Statistics and Trends

What is the Supreme Novices Hurdle?

Supreme Novices Hurdle Winners since 1997

Horses Age – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Weight Carried – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Headgear Worn – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Starting Price (SP) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Position in Betting Market – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Official Rating (OR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Days Since Last Run (DSLR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Last Run Placing (LR) – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Miscellaneous Statistics – Supreme Novices Hurdle

One Stop Ratings – Supreme Novices Hurdle

Our Selection for the 2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

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