SOUTHWELL ALL-WEATHER RACING PREDICTIONS

Monday 29th September 2025

Track: Southwell (All Weather) – Tapeta surface, Standard going
Stalls: 5f races from Centre, remainder from Inner
Total Races: 8

RACE-BY-RACE PREDICTIONS

RACE 1 – 17:00: Free Race Replays Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 2m½f | Runners: 6

Analysis: Extended stamina test over 2½ miles on Tapeta. Small field means each runner has realistic chance.

Key Contenders:

• Universal Story (OR 67, 13/8) – Highest rated, market confidence
• Big Win (OR 60, 5/2) – Decent rating, Rossa Ryan booking
• Spectacular Style (OR 62) – Ian Williams excellent with AW runners

PREDICTION: UNIVERSAL STORY (13/8)
Reasoning: Highest official rating (67) in small field. Market confidence with short odds suggests stamina for the extended trip. Jennie Candlish stable in good form.

RACE 2 – 17:30: Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 7f | Runners: 9

Analysis: Mix of debutantes and experienced fillies. Experience usually tells in juvenile fillies races.

Key Contenders:

• Mayfair Market (OR 71, 7/2) – Only filly with official rating, proven form 534
• Tago Mago (7/2) – Expensive purchase, market support suggests ability
• Izz’nt She Hot (4/1) – Gosden filly showing improvement (form 67)
• Art Gallery (7/2) – Oisin Murphy ride for Ferguson, strong booking

PREDICTION: MAYFAIR MARKET (7/2)
Reasoning: Only runner with official rating (71) and proven form. Experience advantage over debutantes in competitive fillies novice. Billy Loughnane excellent AW jockey.

RACE 3 – 18:00: Virgin 519 Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 6f | Runners: 9

Analysis: High-class novice with several well-bred runners making AW debuts.

Key Contenders:

• Spitzbergen (OR 79, 11/4) – Highest rating, Crisford runner with decent form
• Brakeman (13/8) – Market leader, solid recent form for Marco Botti
• Vamp (OR 68, 7/2) – Good rating, Richard Hughes runner

PREDICTION: BRAKEMAN (13/8)
Reasoning: Market leader with proven form. Marco Botti excels with AW runners. Recent form 5-24t shows ability, and AW surface should suit perfectly.

RACE 4 – 18:30: Fillies Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 6f | Runners: 13

Analysis: Competitive fillies handicap. Draw important over sprint distance.

Key Contenders (from available data):

• Phoenix Moon (OR 79, 7/2) – Highest rating, Oisin Murphy booking
• Daytona Lady (OR 78) – High rating filly
• Spirit Of Jenny (OR 76) – Solid rating

PREDICTION: PHOENIX MOON (7/2)
Reasoning: Highest available rating (79) with Oisin Murphy booking. Odds suggest strong chance in competitive fillies handicap.

RACE 5 – 19:00: Glitzmas Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 5f | Runners: 12

Analysis: Sprint handicap from centre stalls. All-weather form crucial over minimum trip.

Key Contenders:

• Grace Angel (OR 75, 15/8) – Excellent recent AW form 565522, C&D second last time
• Thankuappreciate (OR 71, 3/1) – Solid AW form 005262, finishing well recently
• Ziggy’s Triton (OR 75, 13/2) – Recent winner 281513, Oisin Murphy rides

PREDICTION: GRACE ANGEL (15/8)
Reasoning: Proven 5f specialist with excellent recent AW form. Runner-up over course and distance last time suggests ready to win. Centre draw advantage for sprint.

RACE 6 – 19:30: Marketmovers Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 1m | Runners: 14

Analysis: Competitive mile handicap. Recent form and AW experience crucial.

Key Contenders:

• My Ambition (OR 59, 11/4) – Recent winner, proven AW ability, Oisin Murphy
• My Brother Mike (OR 56, 9/2) – Course winner, veteran with experience
• Woodleigh (OR 55, 6/1) – Previous Southwell winner
• Back From Dubai (OR 52, 5/1) – Course form, well-weighted

PREDICTION: MY AMBITION (11/4)
Reasoning: Recent winner with proven all-weather ability. Oisin Murphy booking suggests confidence. Well-handicapped off OR 59. Form figures 858413 show consistency.

RACE 7 – 20:00: Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 7f | Runners: 7

Analysis: High-class fillies novice with quality runners.

Key Contenders:

• Luminoso (OR 89, 5/2) – Highest rating, strong favorite
• Stellenbosch (OR 86, 11/4) – High rating, Richard Hannon runner
• Goldie Trickett (OR 73, 7/2) – William Haggas filly, Tom Marquand rides

PREDICTION: LUMINOSO (5/2)
Reasoning: Highest rating (89) and market favorite. Billy Loughnane excellent AW jockey. Rating suggests significant class above rivals.

RACE 8 – 20:30: Final Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 6f | Runners: 12

Analysis: End-of-card handicap sprint. Look for value in competitive field.

Key Contenders:

• Winter Crown (OR 77) – Highest available rating
• The Real McKay (OR 73, 4/1) – Decent rating, market support
• Roaring Ralph (OR 71, 10/1) – Solid rating for Michael Dods

PREDICTION: THE REAL MCKAY (4/1)
Reasoning: Strong market support with decent rating (73). Michael Herrington stable in good form. Lewis Edmunds proven AW jockey.

FINAL PREDICTIONS SUMMARY

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR ALL-WEATHER RACING

Essential Considerations:

• Surface Suitability: Proven Tapeta/AW form more important than turf form
• Draw Advantage: Centre stalls for 5f races, inner stalls for others
• Jockey Expertise: Oisin Murphy, Billy Loughnane, Rossa Ryan excel on AW
• Trainer Specialists: Marco Botti, Ian Williams, Crisford team have excellent AW records
• Official Ratings: Higher ratings usually prevail in handicaps
• Recent Form: AW form in last 3 runs trumps older turf performances

Track-Specific Factors:

• Tapeta Surface: Favors front-runners and hold-up horses equally
• Standard Going: Consistent conditions across all races
• Distance Bias: No significant track bias, true running surface
• Class Levels: Ratings crucial in handicaps, breeding important in novice events

Betting Strategy:

• Focus on proven AW performers with recent form
• Consider trainer/jockey combinations with strong AW records
• Value in horses dropping in class or returning to preferred surface
• Each-way opportunities in competitive handicaps