Mildmay Novices’ Chase – 10 Year Trends

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt chase which is run at Aintree during the Grand National Festival. The current sponsor is Betway.

This year’s race will be held on Friday 8th April 2022

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase often features horses which ran previously in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase.

This race is open to is open to horses aged five years old and over. It is run on the Mildmay Course at Aintree over a distance of about 3 miles and 1 furlong. During the race there are nineteen fences to be negotiated.

Previous Winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase

DateTrackDistanceGoingRunnersWinnerStallionAgeJockey (Clm)TrainerOddsWeightORDays
9.04.2021Aintree3m1fGood To Soft7Chantry House (IRE)Yeats (IRE)7Boinville, NicoHenderson, N J11/811-415922d
5.04.2019Aintree3m1fSoft6Lostintranslation (IRE)Flemensfirth (USA)7Power, R MTizzard, C L3/111-415722d
13.04.2018Aintree3m1fSoft9Terrefort (FR)Martaline5Jacob, DarylHenderson, N J3/111-415329d
7.04.2017Aintree3m1½fGood5Might Bite (IRE)Scorpion (IRE)8Boinville, NicoHenderson, N J8/1311-416123d
8.04.2016Aintree3m1fGood To Soft8Native River (IRE)Indian River (FR)6Johnson, RichardTizzard, C L11/211-414924d
10.04.2015Aintree3m1fGood9Saphir Du Rheu (FR)Al Namix (FR)6Twiston-Davies, SamNicholls, P F13/811-416329d
4.04.2014Aintree3m1fGood6Holywell (IRE)Gold Well7McCoy, A PONeill, Jonjo7/211-415724d
5.04.2013Aintree3m1fGood6Dynaste (FR)Martaline7Scudamore, TomPipe, D E9/411-415722d
13.04.2012Aintree3m1fGood5Silviniaco Conti (FR)Dom Alco (FR)6Walsh, RNicholls, P F7/411-415455d
8.04.2011Aintree3m1fGood8Quito De La Roque (FR)Saint Des Saints (FR)7Russell, D NMurphy, C A6/111-415254d

Horses

Due to the conditions of the race no horse can run in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase more than once.

Course Form

The table shows the number of times the 69 horses, who have run in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase during the last 10 years, had previously run at Aintree.

8 of the last 10 winners had previously never run at Aintree.

Course RunsBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
043818.6-12.871534.88
12015-16630
241250.5375
3200-200

Winning Distance Form

The table shows the number of times the 69 horses, who have run in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase during the last 10 years, had previously won over a similar distance.

None of the last 10 winners had previously won at the distance.

Distance WinsBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
0601016.67-21.372440
1900-900

Winning Going Form

The table shows the number of times the 69 horses, who have run in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase during the last 10 years, have previously won a race with a similar going description.

6 winners had won on similar going at least once.

Going WinsBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
021419.05-3.62942.86
12129.52-14.25523.81
218316.67-5.12527.78
36116.67-4.38466.67
4100-11100
6200-200

Trainers

Winners

6 trainers have saddled a winner of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase in the last 10 years.

Nicky Henderson has been the most successful training 3 of those winners.

TrainerBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
Henderson, N J9333.33-1444.44
Nicholls, P F10220-4.62440
Tizzard, C L6233.334.5466.67
Murphy, C A1110061100
Pipe, D E3133.330.25133.33
ONeill, Jonjo111003.51100

Places (includes wins)

15 trainers have been responsible for the 24 horses to make the frame in the last 10 years.

TrainerBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
Henderson, N J9333.33-1444.44
Nicholls, P F10220-4.62440
Tizzard, C L6233.334.5466.67
West, Miss Sheena100-11100
Murphy, C A1110061100
Webber, P R100-11100
Bowen, P100-11100
Twiston-Davies, N A200-2150
Keighley, M100-11100
King, A100-11100
Pipe, D E3133.330.25133.33
Elliott, Gordon100-11100
ONeill, Jonjo111003.51100
Skelton, Daniel400-4125
Honeyball, A J100-11100

Age

8 of the last 10 winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase have been aged between 6 and 7 years old.

AgeBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
53133.331133.33
618316.67-6.12738.89
737513.51-15.871335.14
89111.11-7.38222.22
9200-2150

Sex

All of the winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase in the previous 10 years have been geldings.

Just 1 mare has run and she was placed.

Headgear

8 of the winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase and 19 of the 24 horses to make the frame in the last 10 years have been without headgear.

HeadgearBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
None54814.81-26.371935.19
Cheekpieces7114.29-0.5457.14
Blinkers41250.5125
Visor200-200
Hood200-200

Official Rating (OR)

The following table shows the official rating of every placed horse in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase over the last 10 years.

9 of the last 10 winners had a rating of between 152 and 163.

ORBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
130100-11100
144600-6116.67
146700-7228.57
14951201.5240
150500-5120
151400-4250
15251202240
15341250250
1544125-1.25250
155300-3266.67
157331008.753100
15921500.38150
161111000.621100
16321500.632100

8 of the last 10 winners were within 1lb of the top rated.

OR RankBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
TopRated11654.559.88872.73
1 lower3266.674.25266.67
2 lower300-3133.33
5 lower500-5120
6 lower9111.11-5555.56
7 lower200-2150
9 lower300-3133.33
10 lower51201.5360
19 lower300-3133.33
22 lower100-11100

Official ratings are produced by the British Horseracing Board.

Starting Price (SP)

The table shows the starting price odds of all placed horses in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase for the last 10 years.

The winners range from 8/13 (1.62) to 6/1 (7.00).

8 of the 10 winners were 7/2 or less

19 of the 24 horses to make the frame returned a SP 6/1 (8.00) or less.

SPBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
1.62111000.621100
1.91100-11100
2.38111001.381100
2.63111001.631100
2.7521500.75150
2.88100-11100
3.253133.330.25266.67
4.0042504375
4.50111003.51100
5.00500-5240
5.50400-4250
6.50111005.51100
7.0051202240
9.00300-3133.33
11.00200-2150
13.00300-3133.33
17.00400-4125
51.00100-11100

Position in Betting Market

5 outright favourites have won the Mildmay Novices’ Chase in the last 10 years. All of the last 10 winners and 19 of the 24 to make the frame came from the first 3 in the betting market.

Pos BettingBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
Clear Top9555.564.38666.67
Joint Top21501.25150
Clear Second9222.22-0.5777.78
Clear Third82255.5450
Joint Third400-4125
Clear Fourth600-600
Joint Fourth400-4125
Clear Fifth500-500
Joint Fifth200-200
Clear Sixth400-4250
Clear Seventh300-300
Clear Eighth200-200
Clear Bottom900-9222.22
Joint Bottom200-200

Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

8 of the previous 10 Mildmay Novices’ Chase winners had their latest run between 21 and 30 days ago.

DSLRBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
11-15 days100-100
16-20 days300-3266.67
21-25 days36616.67-13.751336.11
26-30 days12216.67-5.37541.67
31-45 days400-4125
46-60 days82251.75225
76-90 days100-100
91-120 days100-100
121-150 days300-3133.33

Last Run Placing (LR)

The table shows the break down of the last run placing for the previous 10 runnings of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase

9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on their previous outing.

LRBetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%
First24416.67-8.5937.5
Second13538.467.38861.54
Third600-6116.67
Fourth3133.33-0.25266.67
Fifth300-3133.33
Sixth500-5120
Seventh200-200
Ninth100-100
Eleventh200-200
Brought Down100-100
Fell300-3266.67
Pulled Up200-200
Unseated Rider400-400

One Stop Ratings

9 of the last 10 winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase have been ranked in the top 3 on One Stop Rating (OSR).

OSR RankBetsWinsWin%PlacesPlaces%P/L
110550.00%880.00%3.88
210330.00%550.00%5.50
310110.00%220.00%-7.25
41000.00%220.00%-10.00
51000.00%110.00%-10.00
6800.00%225.00%-8.00
75120.00%360.00%1.50
8400.00%125.00%-4.00
9200.00%00.00%-2.00

One Stop Racings unique One Stop Ratings will be available for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase on Thursday 6th April.

Our Selection for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase

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