Horse Racing is not a coin toss
“Flip a coin. When it is in the air, you will know which side you are hoping for.” – Arnold Rothstein
A mathematician will tell you that if you toss a coin to decide what to do, you have a 50-50 chance of making the right decision. But horse racing is not a coin toss.
In theory a horse priced up at even money has that same 50-50 chance, but does it.
Does a horse priced at even money have a 50-50 chance?
The answer is no.
In the ten years from 2012 – 2021 a total of 3908 horses went to post with a starting price of evens, only 1761 won, which is 45.1% not the 50% you would assume; therefore, it is a coin toss weighted heavily to the advantage of the bookmaker.
Here are the true percentages vs actual percentages for all horses that returned a starting price between even money (1/1) and 10/1 from 2012-2021.
| SP | True % | Bets | Wins | Actual % | P/L(SP) | ROI(SP) |
| 1/1 | 50.0 | 3908 | 1761 | 45.1 | -389 | -9.95 |
| 11/10 | 47.6 | 3440 | 1490 | 43.3 | -310 | -9.01 |
| 6/5 | 45.0 | 1946 | 841 | 43.2 | -95 | -4.88 |
| 5/4 | 44.4 | 5319 | 2273 | 42.7 | -209.71 | -3.94 |
| 11/8 | 42.0 | 5276 | 2152 | 40.8 | -157 | -2.98 |
| 6/4 | 40.0 | 6875 | 2499 | 36.4 | -629 | -9.15 |
| 13/8 | 38.0 | 5255 | 1879 | 35.8 | -317.28 | -6.04 |
| 7/4 | 36.0 | 8626 | 2889 | 33.5 | -688.21 | -7.98 |
| 15/8 | 34.7 | 6376 | 2139 | 33.6 | -219.44 | -3.44 |
| 2/1 | 33.0 | 13787 | 4169 | 30.2 | -1289 | -9.35 |
| 85/40 | 32.0 | 478 | 145 | 30.3 | -24.15 | -5.05 |
| 9/4 | 30.7 | 15261 | 4186 | 27.4 | -1662.21 | -10.89 |
| 5/2 | 28.5 | 17826 | 4783 | 26.8 | -1103.25 | -6.19 |
| 13/5 | 27.7 | 30 | 9 | 30.0 | 3.3 | 11 |
| 11/4 | 26.7 | 18891 | 4714 | 25.0 | -1231.31 | -6.52 |
| 3/1 | 25.0 | 27358 | 6125 | 22.4 | -2886 | -10.55 |
| 100/30 | 23.0 | 10707 | 2262 | 21.1 | -933.47 | -8.72 |
| 7/2 | 22.0 | 32474 | 6269 | 19.3 | -4298.5 | -13.24 |
| 4/1 | 20.0 | 36943 | 6398 | 17.3 | -5001 | -13.54 |
| 9/2 | 18.0 | 35975 | 5787 | 16.1 | -4179.25 | -11.62 |
| 5/1 | 16.7 | 39295 | 5680 | 14.6 | -5282.5 | -13.44 |
| 11/2 | 15.0 | 23421 | 3034 | 13.0 | -3728.25 | -15.92 |
| 6/1 | 14.3 | 39261 | 4669 | 11.9 | -6627 | -16.88 |
| 13/2 | 13.3 | 18433 | 2105 | 11.4 | -2659.75 | -14.43 |
| 7/1 | 12.5 | 44367 | 4633 | 10.4 | -7367 | -16.6 |
| 15/2 | 11.7 | 12757 | 1289 | 10.1 | -1792 | -14.05 |
| 8/1 | 11.1 | 58467 | 5293 | 9.1 | -10934 | -18.7 |
| 17/2 | 10.5 | 7242 | 636 | 8.8 | -1204.25 | -16.63 |
| 9/1 | 10.0 | 30488 | 2469 | 8.1 | -5856.5 | -19.21 |
| 10/1 | 9.1 | 51092 | 3683 | 7.2 | -10639 | -20.82 |
The chart above does not paint a pretty picture, you can see that apart from 13/5, which is rarely seen, the odds are not in our favour.
Why the discrepancy?
The reason for this discrepancy is the bookmakers overround which determines the margin of profit they will make on a race regardless of what wins.
A true book which is weighted neither in the bookmaker or the punters favour would be 100%.
For example, if four horses of equal ability went to post the true odds of each runner is 3/1 or 25% making a book of 100%. The bookmakers however may price this up with all four runners at 11/4 or 26.7% making the book 106.8% meaning whatever the outcome, assuming the same amount was staked on each horse, they would pocket 6.8% profit.
On an average day that bookies overround can be anything from 112% to 128% per race. This means that if they have done their sums right, and balanced the liabilities on each horse, no matter which horse emerges as the winner, they will show a return on investment of between 12% and 28%.
So, is it possible for the punter to win?
Yes it is.
The bookmakers do on occasion get it wrong. If in your estimation one of the four runners in the mythical race above should be 5/2 it is overpriced at 11/4, lump on and beat the book.
Yes you will still lose a few races but in theory your horse should win 28.5% of the time as opposed to the 25% that your bookie had decided was its chance.
Providing your sums are right, in a series of 1000 bets you can expect 285 of them to win returning at 1pt stakes the princely sum of 1068.75 points.
The challenge is to identify those opportunities where the bookmaker has got it wrong.
© One Stop Racing 2022
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