“I do not think playing it safe constitutes a retreat, necessarily. In other words, I do not think if, by playing safe he means we are not going to delve into controversy, then if that is what he means he is quite right. I am not going to delve into controversy. Somebody asked me the other day if this means that I am going to be a meek conformist, and my answer is no. I’m just acting the role of a tired non-conformist.” – Rod Sterling.
There are two periods every year when all known form goes out of the window. These periods I call “The Wilderness Months”.
The first period starts in mid-March just before Cheltenham, and extends right up to the Newmarket Guineas Meeting in May.
The second period runs from around the St Leger in September, and runs right up to the Cheltenham November meeting.
The reasons for this occurring are many fold, and include the inclement spring and autumn weather, and the transition from Jumps racing to the Flat turf season, and back again at the other end of the year.
As the seasons change, several factors come into play.
In spring, the jumpers that are due to be put away for the summer are quite often past their peak, and other horses that have had a poor season may be placed well by their trainers to get a vital win, helping to pay for their pasture during the summer break.
Meanwhile the flat season is just starting up, woolly-looking unraced two-year-olds are lining up, still in their winter coats, whilst many of the older horses are desperate for a run on the recourse to blow the cobwebs away.
Three year olds are an enigma too. Have they trained on? Are they fully fit or do they need a run? And a host of other questions.
Horses fit from the All-Weather can often outperform these horses that need a run, and other horses that generally do well after a break can also come to the fore.
Many races however do not have a horse fit from the All-Weather racing, or a horse that goes well fresh. Because of this strange results can occur, and the outcome is often very different to what it would be if the same horses met on the same terms later in the season.
From September to November, the opposite is happening (apart from woolly two-year-olds) – the flat horses are coming to the end of a long turf season, and the National Hunt season is taking a few tentative steps, as the protagonists work off that summer belly from the good living on lush pastures.
There are exceptions to this rule, but it tends to be only the absolute best races.
For the spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree, horses are often trained to the minute for a specific race. This in itself can cause problems for the punter, especially if a top trainer (or even more than one top trainer) is planning to run several horses in the same event.
Many professional punters totally shut up shop during these periods.
I, on the other hand carry on, but proceed with caution. The opportunities are still there if you know where to look – it is just that they are a damn sight harder to spot.
Ah, I know what you are thinking – “we dodged a bullet in 2020 as there was no racing from the middle of March until June 1st.”
NOOOOOO!!! We did not!
If anything, things were far worse.
In June 2020, we met the majority of the problems described above, and had to endure a host of new ones too, such as:
- Races being run out of sequence.
- Major races being contended without a much-needed prep race.
- No crowds (which benefited some horses, and was detrimental to the chances of others.)
- Limited numbers of stall handlers due to social distancing rules meant many horses were withdrawn at the start because it was impossible to load them into the starting stalls.
Finally, to cap it all, just as we were getting a bit of form on the table, and results were more in favour of the backer than the layer, it rained.
Yes it rained. Very heavily – messing up the form lines yet again.
Thank you very much, the Great British Summer.
Its not easy this betting lark is it?
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