Manifesto Novices Chase – 10 Year Trends
The Manifesto Novices Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt chase which is run at Aintree during the Grand National Festival. The current sponsor is SSS Super Alloys.
This years race will be held on Thursday 7th April 2022
This race features horses which ran previously in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase and the Turners Novices Chase.
This race is open to is open to horses aged five years or older. It is run at Aintree on the Mildmay Course over a distance of about 2 miles and 4 furlongs. During the race there are sixteen fences to be negotiated.
Previous Winners
| Date | Track | Distance | Going | Runners | Winner | Stallion | Age | Jockey (Clm) | Trainer | Odds | Weight | OR | Days |
| 8.04.2021 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 7 | Protektorat (FR) | Saint Des Saints (FR) | 6 | Skelton, Harry | Skelton, Daniel | 17/2 | 11-4 | 150 | 48d |
| 4.04.2019 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 6 | Kalashnikov (IRE) | Kalanisi (IRE) | 6 | Quinlan, Jack | Murphy, Amy | 4/1 | 11-4 | 148 | 23d |
| 12.04.2018 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 6 | Finians Oscar (IRE) | Oscar (IRE) | 6 | Power, R M | Tizzard, C L | 5/2 | 11-4 | 151 | 28d |
| 6.04.2017 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good | 6 | Flying Angel (IRE) | Arcadio (GER) | 6 | Fehily, Noel | Twiston-Davies, N A | 5/1 | 11-4 | 150 | 21d |
| 7.04.2016 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 8 | Arzal (FR) | Vendangeur (IRE) | 6 | Sheehan, Gavin | Whittington, H | 4/1 | 11-4 | 151 | 68d |
| 9.04.2015 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 6 | Clarcam (FR) | Califet (FR) | 5 | Walsh, R | Elliott, Gordon | 5/1 | 11-4 | 153 | 30d |
| 3.04.2014 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good | 5 | Uxizandre (FR) | Fragrant Mix (IRE) | 6 | McCoy, A P | King, A | 11/4 | 11-4 | 153 | 21d |
| 4.04.2013 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good | 7 | Captain Conan (FR) | Kingsalsa (USA) | 6 | Geraghty, B J | Henderson, N J | 6/5 | 11-4 | 152 | 21d |
| 12.04.2012 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 5 | Menorah (IRE) | Kings Theatre (IRE) | 7 | Johnson, Richard | Hobbs, P J | 3/1 | 11-4 | 151 | 30d |
| 7.04.2011 | Aintree | 2m4f | Good To Soft | 7 | Wishfull Thinking | Alflora (IRE) | 8 | Johnson, Richard | Hobbs, P J | 9/4 | 11-4 | 155 | 21d |
Horses
The conditions of the Manifesto Novices Chase means that horses can only run once in it.
Course Form
The table shows the number of times the 63 horses, who have run in the Manifesto Novices Chase during the last 10 years, had previously run at Aintree .
7 of the last 10 winners had run at least once at Aintree from 28 horses..
| Course Runs | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 37 | 3 | 8.11 | -17.5 | 10 | 27.03 |
| 1 | 18 | 5 | 27.78 | 1.45 | 7 | 38.89 |
| 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -1.75 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 3 | 3 | 100 |
Winning Distance Form
The table shows the number of times the 63 horses, who have run in the Manifesto Novices Chase during the last 10 years, had previously won over a similar distance.
| Distance Wins | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 39 | 6 | 15.38 | -7.3 | 13 | 33.33 |
| 1 | 17 | 3 | 17.65 | -4.25 | 4 | 23.53 |
| 2 | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | -2.25 | 4 | 66.67 |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Winning Going Form
The table shows the number of times the 63 horses, who have run in the Manifesto Novices Chase during the last 10 years, have previously won a race with a similar going description.
| Going Wins | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 25 | 4 | 16 | -8.05 | 7 | 28 |
| 1 | 9 | 1 | 11.11 | -3 | 3 | 33.33 |
| 2 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | 7.25 | 6 | 42.86 |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 50 |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -1 | 2 | 40 |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
Trainers
Winners
9 trainers have saddled the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase in the last 10 years.
Phillip Hobbs is the only dual winners and they have come from just 3 runs.
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Hobbs, P J | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 4.25 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Elliott, Gordon | 4 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| King, A | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.75 | 2 | 100 |
| Murphy, Amy | 1 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
| Tizzard, C L | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Twiston-Davies, N A | 2 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Skelton, Daniel | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 6.5 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Henderson, N J | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -5.8 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Whittington, H | 1 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
Places (includes wins)
14 trainers have been responsible for the 21 horses to make the frame in the last 10 years.
Least successful is Paul Nicholls with no winners and just 2 places from 11 runners.
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Henderson, N J | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -5.8 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Hobbs, P J | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 4.25 | 2 | 66.67 |
| King, A | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.75 | 2 | 100 |
| Nicholls, P F | 11 | 0 | 0 | -11 | 2 | 18.18 |
| Skelton, Daniel | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 6.5 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Mullins, Emmet | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Elliott, Gordon | 4 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Murphy, Amy | 1 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
| Greatrex, W J | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Twiston-Davies, N A | 2 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Tizzard, C L | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Russell, Miss Lucinda V | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Jefferson, J M | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Whittington, H | 1 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
Age
The table below shows the ages to the 63 horses that have lined up in the Manifesto Novices Chase in the previous 10 years.
Just 25 of the runners have been aged 6, and they have produced 5 winners and a further 5 in the minor placings.
| Age | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 14.29 | -1 | 1 | 14.29 |
| 6 | 25 | 7 | 28 | 9.95 | 12 | 48 |
| 7 | 17 | 1 | 5.88 | -13 | 3 | 17.65 |
| 8 | 12 | 1 | 8.33 | -8.75 | 4 | 33.33 |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Sex
All of the winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase in the previous 10 years have been geldings. Just 5 mares have run in that time period.
Headgear
8 of the winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase in the last 10 years have been without headgear but from 5 runners lining up wearing Cheekpieces 2 have won.
| Headgear | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| None | 51 | 8 | 15.69 | -10.05 | 18 | 35.29 |
| Cheekpieces | 5 | 2 | 40 | 2.25 | 2 | 40 |
| Hood | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 25 |
| Blinkers | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Official Rating (OR)
The following table shows the official rating of every placed horse in the Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 10 years.
All of the 10 winners had a rating between 148 and 155.
| OR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 144 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| 145 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 148 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
| 150 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 7.5 | 2 | 25 |
| 151 | 10 | 3 | 30 | 2.5 | 4 | 40 |
| 152 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -2.8 | 3 | 60 |
| 153 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 2.75 | 5 | 71.43 |
| 155 | 4 | 1 | 25 | -0.75 | 2 | 50 |
| 156 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
All of the last winners were within 9lb of the top rated.
| OR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| TopRated | 11 | 1 | 9.09 | -7.75 | 4 | 36.36 |
| 1 lower | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 lower | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 0.2 | 4 | 57.14 |
| 3 lower | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 lower | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | -2.5 | 1 | 16.67 |
| 5 lower | 8 | 2 | 25 | 6.5 | 4 | 50 |
| 6 lower | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 lower | 4 | 2 | 50 | 5.75 | 3 | 75 |
| 9 lower | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 7 | 3 | 100 |
Official ratings are produced by the British Horseracing Board.
Starting Price (SP)
The table shows the starting price odds of all placed horses in the Manifesto Novices Chase for the last 10 years.
The winners range from 6/5 (2.20) to 17/2 (9.50).
9 of the 10 previous winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase have returned a SP of 5/1 (6.00) or less.
| SP | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 2.20 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | -0.8 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 2.63 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.75 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 100 |
| 2.88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.25 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 0.25 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 3.50 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.5 | 1 | 50 |
| 3.75 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.75 | 2 | 100 |
| 4.00 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 100 |
| 4.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| 5.00 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 60 |
| 5.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| 6.00 | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 9 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 6.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 9.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 9.50 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 8.5 | 1 | 100 |
Position in Betting Market
Just 1 outright favourites has won the Manifesto Novices Chase in the last 10 years. 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting market.
| Pos Betting | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Clear Top | 10 | 1 | 10 | -7.8 | 5 | 50 |
| Clear Second | 9 | 4 | 44.44 | 7 | 6 | 66.67 |
| Joint Second | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Clear Third | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 4 | 3 | 42.86 |
| Joint Third | 4 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Clear Fourth | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Clear Fifth | 7 | 1 | 14.29 | 2.5 | 2 | 28.57 |
| Clear Sixth | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Seventh | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Bottom | 9 | 0 | 0 | -9 | 0 | 0 |
| Joint Bottom | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Days Since Last Run (DSLR)
8 of the previous 10 Manifesto Novices Chase winners had their latest run between 21 and 30 days ago.
| DSLR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 16-20 days | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| 21-25 days | 29 | 5 | 17.24 | -8.8 | 12 | 41.38 |
| 26-30 days | 12 | 3 | 25 | 1.5 | 5 | 41.67 |
| 31-45 days | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 0 |
| 46-60 days | 4 | 1 | 25 | 5.5 | 3 | 75 |
| 61-75 days | 2 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 50 |
| 91-120 days | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 121-150 days | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Last Run Placing (LR)
The table shows the break down of the last run placing for the previous 10 runnings of the Manifesto Novices Chase.
None of the last 10 winners had won on their previous outing.
| LR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| First | 15 | 0 | 0 | -15 | 3 | 20 |
| Second | 13 | 4 | 30.77 | 8.5 | 6 | 46.15 |
| Third | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -4 | 2 | 25 |
| Fourth | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 40 |
| Fifth | 4 | 2 | 50 | 1.7 | 3 | 75 |
| Sixth | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Eighth | 2 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Ninth | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fourteenth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fifteenth | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fell | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Pulled Up | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 25 |
| Unseated Rider | 2 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 50 |
One Stop Ratings
9 of the last 10 winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase have been ranked in the top 6 on One Stop Rating (OSR).
| OSR Rank | Bets | Wins | Win% | Places | Places% | P/L |
| 1 | 10 | 2 | 20.00% | 7 | 70.00% | -4.55 |
| 2 | 10 | 0 | 0.00% | 2 | 20.00% | -10.00 |
| 3 | 10 | 1 | 10.00% | 1 | 10.00% | -6.25 |
| 4 | 10 | 1 | 10.00% | 4 | 40.00% | -6.00 |
| 5 | 10 | 3 | 30.00% | 4 | 40.00% | 5.50 |
| 6 | 8 | 2 | 25.00% | 2 | 25.00% | 6.50 |
| 7 | 4 | 1 | 25.00% | 1 | 25.00% | 1.00 |
| 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | -1.00 |
One Stop Racings unique One Stop Ratings will be available for the Manifesto Novices Chase 2022 on Wednesday 6th April.
Our Selection for the Manifesto Novices Chase
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