Can the 10-Year Trends Find the Winner?

The Epsom Derby is never just another race. It is the ultimate test of a three-year-old colt: balance, stamina, class, temperament and tactical speed all rolled into one unique mile and a half around Epsom’s famous cambers.

Every year, the Derby produces its own story. Sometimes the obvious superstar delivers. Sometimes a less fashionable contender announces himself on the biggest stage. But while the Derby can feel unpredictable, the last 10 years of statistics do give us some useful clues.

Using the 10-year trends across draw, market position, trainer records, jockey records, official ratings, preparation routes and recent form, the horse who comes out best for the 2026 Derby is:

Benvenuto Cellini

The main danger is:

Ancient Egypt

And the best value/outside threat is:

Action

Why the 10-Year Derby Trends Matter

The Derby is a race where raw ability is essential, but ability alone is not always enough. Epsom asks different questions from most racecourses. A horse needs to travel, handle the downhill run, stay the trip, cope with the camber, and still quicken when the pressure comes on.

That is why trends can be useful. They do not guarantee the winner, but they help identify the type of horse most likely to cope with the Derby test.

The most important 10-year trends from the data are:

• Stalls 10 and 12 have been especially strong.
• Aidan O’Brien has the outstanding trainer record.
• Charlie Appleby has also performed very well from fewer runners.
• Ryan Moore is one of the strongest jockey positives.
• The best value odds zone has been around 13/2 to 8/1.
• Horses with exactly four runs in the previous 365 days have performed very well.
• Runners coming from Newmarket Rowley, Chester, Lingfield and the Curragh have positive records.
• York as a last-run track has been less productive for winners.
• The favourite has a fair record, but the Derby has not been completely dominated by favourites.

With those trends in mind, one runner stands out.

The Statistical Pick: Benvenuto Cellini

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

The strongest trainer angle in the 10-year Derby statistics is Aidan O’Brien.

His record in the data is excellent:

That is a major positive for Benvenuto Cellini.

In a race as demanding as the Derby, trainer experience counts for a lot. O’Brien knows exactly what type of horse is required for Epsom, how to prepare one for the day, and how to manage a team of Derby contenders. When his leading jockey gets on board one of his main runners, it is usually worth taking very seriously.

Ryan Moore Is Another Major Positive

Benvenuto Cellini is ridden by Ryan Moore, which strengthens the case further.

Moore’s Derby record in the 10-year figures is strong:

That combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore is one of the most powerful statistical profiles in the race.

The Derby is not always a race where a jockey can simply sit and wait. Positioning matters. Timing matters. Not getting trapped in the wrong place matters. Moore’s experience around Epsom is a clear advantage.

Stall 12: A Very Strong Draw

One of the clearest trends in the Derby statistics is the draw.

The best individual stalls in the data include stall 10 and stall 12. Benvenuto Cellini is drawn in stall 12, which is a major positive.

This is one of the strongest stall records in the entire dataset.

The draw data does not suggest that being extremely wide is ideal. In fact, the widest stall has struggled badly. But the middle-to-high draw zone has been very productive, and stall 12 sits right in that sweet spot.

That gives Benvenuto Cellini another tick.

Chester Route Is a Positive

Benvenuto Cellini comes into the Derby through Chester, and that is another important trend.

Chester has been one of the better last-run tracks for Derby contenders:

Chester is not the same as Epsom, but it does test a horse’s balance, turning ability and tactical adaptability. Those are useful qualities for the Derby.

A horse who can handle Chester and then step forward at Epsom is exactly the sort of profile the trends suggest we should respect.

Recent Winning Form Is Another Tick

Benvenuto Cellini also arrives after a last-time-out win, which is no bad thing.

The 10-year statistics show that horses who won on their previous start have produced the most Derby winners:

The numbers also show that a horse does not absolutely have to win last time to win the Derby. Previous seconds and thirds can be dangerous too. But coming into the race in winning form is still a clear positive, especially when combined with the right trainer, jockey and draw.

The Main Concern: Price

The one drawback with Benvenuto Cellini is his position in the market.

The strongest odds bracket in the 10-year statistics is not the very shortest prices. The best zone has been:

13/2 to 8/1

That bracket has produced:

Benvenuto Cellini is likely to be shorter than that. So from a value perspective, he may not be the perfect betting price.

However, there is a difference between the most likely winner and the best-value bet. On pure statistical fit, Benvenuto Cellini still makes the most appeal.

He has the right trainer, the right jockey, the right draw, the right trial route and the right recent profile.

That is enough to make him the selection.

Main Danger: Ancient Egypt

If Benvenuto Cellini is the pick, the main danger is Ancient Egypt.

The biggest reason is simple: stall 10.

Stall 10 has the best individual Derby draw record in the 10-year data:

That is a striking statistic.

Ancient Egypt also brings a progressive profile, and a horse drawn in the strongest stall cannot be ignored. The Derby has often rewarded well-positioned, improving horses who can get into a rhythm and use their draw effectively.

The concern is that Ancient Egypt does not have the same powerful trainer-jockey statistical combination as Benvenuto Cellini. That is why he is the danger rather than the selection.

But if the draw plays a major role again, Ancient Egypt could easily outrun expectations.

Best Value Outsider: Action

The most interesting value danger is Action.

He has several positives:

• Trained by Aidan O’Brien
• Ridden by Wayne Lordan
• Drawn close to the strong middle-high area
• Likely to improve for the Derby trip
• Potentially available at a bigger price

Wayne Lordan’s Derby record is also better than many might realise:

That is a strong place record.

The obvious concern with Action is that he comes via York, and York has not been one of the most productive Derby routes in this dataset:

That stops him being the main selection. But as a bigger-priced runner with the right connections and possible improvement, he is a very interesting each-way or forecast horse.

Why Item Is Opposable On The Trends

Item is clearly a major contender on form, but the 10-year Derby trends raise some doubts.

The first issue is the draw. Item is drawn in stall 3, which has been cold in the data:

The second issue is the trainer trend. Andrew Balding has had Derby runners in the sample, but the win column is still blank:

The third issue is the York route, which has underperformed for Derby winners.

None of that means Item cannot win. He may simply be good enough to overcome the statistical negatives. But if we are using the 10-year trends as the foundation of the preview, he does not come out as the strongest overall fit.

He remains respected, but he is not the trends pick.

Other Horses To Note

Maltese Cross

Maltese Cross is interesting because he comes through Lingfield, which has been a positive Derby route.

He is also drawn in stall 1, which has a better record than many might expect:

The question is whether he has the class to win. As a place or each-way type, he makes some appeal.

Bay Of Brilliance

Bay Of Brilliance has a workable draw in stall 9 and also comes via Lingfield, which makes him one to consider for the wider shortlist.

The concern is that Ralph Beckett’s Derby record in this data is not especially strong:

That makes him more of a place candidate than a win selection.

Pierre Bonnard

Pierre Bonnard has the Aidan O’Brien factor, so he cannot be ignored. But stall 8 has not been strong in the statistics:

That is enough to place him behind Benvenuto Cellini and Action from the same stable on statistical grounds.

The 2026 Derby Trends Verdict

The 10-year Derby statistics point towards a horse with the following profile:

• Drawn middle-to-high, ideally around stall 10 or 12
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby
• Ridden by a jockey with strong Derby experience
• Coming from a positive trial route such as Chester, Newmarket Rowley, Lingfield or the Curragh
• Proven as a high-class three-year-old but not necessarily already exposed over 1m4f
• Strong recent form
• Not drawn widest
• Not coming off a poor run

Benvenuto Cellini fits more of those boxes than any other runner.

He has:

• Aidan O’Brien
• Ryan Moore
• Stall 12
• Chester route
• Last-time-out winning form
• The right type of Derby profile

That makes him the standout trends selection.

Final Prediction

1st — Benvenuto Cellini

The best all-round statistical fit. He has the strongest trainer-jockey combination, an excellent draw in stall 12, a positive Chester trial route and winning recent form.

2nd — Ancient Egypt

The main danger because stall 10 has the best individual record in the 10-year data. He is progressive and drawn to run a big race.

3rd — Action

The value contender. Aidan O’Brien and Wayne Lordan are a strong combination, and he could improve for the Derby trip, although the York route is a concern.

4th — Item

A high-class form contender, but the trends are not ideal because of stall 3, the York route and the trainer record in this dataset.

Betting Summary

Final Word

The Derby is rarely won on statistics alone, but the trends are pointing in one clear direction. Benvenuto Cellini may not be the biggest price in the field, but he has the most complete profile: the trainer, the jockey, the draw, the trial route and the recent winning form.

If the last 10 years of Derby data are a reliable guide, Benvenuto Cellini is the horse they want you to be with in the 2026 Epsom Derby.

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