Nunthorpe Stakes: 10 Year Trends

A Decade of Speed: Trends and Insights from the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York

The Nunthorpe Stakes at York is a highlight of the British flat racing calendar, showcasing the fastest sprinters over a sharp 5-furlong dash. Over the past 10 years, this Group 1 sprint has delivered thrilling finishes and revealed fascinating patterns about the horses, jockeys, trainers, and race conditions that define success at York. Let’s delve into the data and uncover the key trends shaping this iconic race.

Age Matters: Experience Counts

Looking at the winners from 2015 to 2024, the race favours mature sprinters. Four-year-olds have claimed victory most often, winning 4 times, while five-year-olds have triumphed 3 times. Younger horses, such as the 3-year-old Winter Power in 2021, have won but are the exception rather than the rule. The Nunthorpe demands not just raw speed but also the experience and physical development that come with age, making 4 to 5 years the sweet spot for contenders.

Bloodlines That Sprint: The Dark Angel Effect

One stallion towers above the rest in recent Nunthorpe history: Dark Angel (IRE). Responsible for four winners, including the legendary Battaash (2019, 2020) and Meccas Angel (2015, 2016), Dark Angel’s progeny have proven to be the gold standard for sprinting excellence at York. Other sires have had single winners, but none match the consistent impact of Dark Angel, underscoring the importance of proven sprinting bloodlines in this race.

Jockeys and Trainers: The Masters of Speed

Success in the Nunthorpe is often a partnership between horse and human. Jockeys Jim Crowley and Paul Mulrennan have each won twice, guiding their mounts with expert timing and tactical nous. Trainers Michael Dods and Charles Hills also boast two wins apiece, highlighting the value of experience and preparation tailored to the unique demands of York’s fast 5-furlong course.

Going and Ground: Firm is Favoured

The race has predominantly been run on “Good To Firm” ground, with 6 of the last 10 renewals on this going, and the rest mostly on “Good.” Firm ground suits horses with sharp acceleration and the ability to maintain top speed, which is crucial in a race decided in just over a minute. The rare “Good To Soft” going in 2015 did not deter Meccas Angel, but firm turf remains the preferred surface for most winners.

Official Ratings: Class Over Burden

Winners typically have official ratings averaging 115. The highest-rated winner was Battaash in 2020, boasting an OR of 126, reflecting his dominance. This consistency high ratings indicates that the Nunthorpe is won by horses at the peak of their powers, where class and current form outweigh any minor weight differences.

The Draw (Stall) Factor: Positioning for Victory

In sprint races like the Nunthorpe, the draw — or stall position — can be a crucial factor. The data shows winners have come from a range of stalls, but there is a slight edge for those drawn in lower-numbered stalls (closer to the inside rail). For example, Battaash won from stall 3 and stall 1 in his two victories, while other winners have come from stalls 1, 3, and 4. The inside stalls offer a shorter path around the bend and can help horses secure a good early position, which is vital in a fast, short race.

However, winners have also emerged from wider stalls, such as Alpha Delphini from stall 7 in 2018 and Winter Power from stall 6 in 2021, showing that a strong break and tactical speed can overcome a wider draw. Overall, while the inside draw is slightly advantageous, the ability to break quickly and position well early is paramount.

Conclusion: What It Takes to Win the Nunthorpe Stakes

The Nunthorpe Stakes is a test of raw speed, experience, and tactical precision. Over the last decade, the race has favoured mature sprinters aged 4 to 5, often sired by the prolific Dark Angel. Success is frequently crafted by expert jockeys and trainers who understand the nuances of York’s fast turf and sharp 5-furlong course.

Firm ground conditions prevail, rewarding horses with explosive acceleration and the stamina to maintain top speed. While the inside draw offers a slight advantage, a quick start and smart positioning can neutralise a wider stall.

For punters and racing fans, focusing on well-bred, experienced sprinters with proven form on firm ground, guided by skilled jockeys and trainers, and considering the draw can provide valuable insight into potential winners of this electrifying sprint.

Nunthorpe Stakes Tips

Final Selections and Tips for the Nunthorpe Stakes and other ITV Races will be available to all members who have at least a Sapphire Membership of One Stop Racing, these will be sent out either the evening before or the morning of the race. (FIRST MONTH JUST 4.99)